As Americans prepare for Thanksgiving and the holiday season, many fear an unwanted guest spoiling their family dinners: inflation.

For several years, it has concerned shoppers. Now, President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on foreign imports have many wondering whether their celebrations will be harder to afford.

The retail industry might ring up $1 trillion this season, but tariffs are still costly

Tariffs have factually cost US consumers – it is estimated that Americans are bearing 50 to 70 percent of their weight. Economists expect that this share will continue to grow.

“[Tariffs] can be used to balance trade issues with other countries and help with American jobs and businesses, but if not used correctly can start trade wars and hurt the domestic and global economy especially when they are haphazard and unpredictable,” Mr. Filippone, an AP US Government teacher at Cathedral, explains. “Tariffs are basically taxes on imported goods from other countries.” The corporations importing these goods pay the taxes, which are then passed on to consumers. According to Mr. Filippone, “the most common effect of tariffs are higher prices of goods.”

Despite tariffs’ extra costs for American shoppers, the National Retail Federation predicts that 2025 will be the first $1 trillion holiday season, rising from last year’s $976 billion. “We’re seeing really positive behavior and engagement from consumers, ” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay shared with ABC. “In fairness, that’s been somewhat of a surprise.”

Shay has observed that American shoppers are growing more selective, and focusing on discounts. While spending continues to grow, it appears to be growing at a slower rate right now. “Consumer spending in the U.S. has remained resilient even as consumer confidence has eroded,” ABC explains.

It is especially becoming more difficult for lower-income Americans to bear tariffs. The gap between spending in lower-income and higher-income households is widening, and wages are growing at a faster rate for higher-income workers. And because of the increased operational cost of tariffs, many retailers are pulling back on the hiring of seasonal workers.

Air fare, meals, and Christmas lights: what’s more expensive this year, and why

“Some sources show overall retail prices up by almost 5%,” Mr. Filippone shares. “That would cost households about $1700 more per year.”

This year, gas prices and air fare prices have increased, so transportation may be more expensive as Americans travel for the holidays.

Grocery bills have also been rising. Food-at-home prices increased 2.7% from September 2024 to 2025, HuffPost reports. Turkey prices are expected to average $2.05 per pound, which is 25% higher than last November.

Tariffs have an influence on grocery prices, but they aren’t the only factor fueling shoppers’ concerns. Avian influenza and other diseases have caused turkey prices to increase 40%. And sugar and sweets prices increased 6.7% from September 2024 to 2025. This is mainly because of weather events in areas where cocoa is grown, but it’s influenced by tariffs and tariff uncertainty.

A few foods are somewhat cheaper this season, including oils, eggs, and frozen vegetables. Retailers have also offered new deals to help increase purchases. Nonetheless, in an early November survey, 40% of grocery shoppers said they’re concerned about purchasing meals and gifts this holiday season.

Then there’s Christmas decor. Artificial Christmas trees are projected to cost 10% to 20% more, an NBC article shared on Nov. 12. Live Christmas trees are mostly grown in the United States, so tariffs will not impact them.

But prices for Christmas lights could jump as much as 63%. Around 90% of mass market Christmas decor items are manufactured in China. Since Trump’s tariffs on China have been unpredictable (ranging from 30% to 145% at various times since the spring), many shoppers are uncertain about purchasing Chinese products.

Trump defends tariffs as beneficial to the country, but inflation persists

In October, Trump released a celebratory Truth Social post: “Good news for the holiday season. Early prices are down, while tariffs are making our country an economic power again. Also, virtually no inflation, as stock markets continually hit record highs. The Best of all worlds for the USA.” Trump said this despite the fact that inflation is still an issue for Americans.

In November, he claimed Walmart’s new Thanksgiving deal as an indicator of Republican success: “Walmart just announced that Prices for a Thanksgiving Dinner is now down 25%… AFFORDABILITY is a Republican Stronghold. Hopefully, Republicans will use this irrefutable fact!”

But HuffPost explains to readers that “Trump’s claim isn’t entirely accurate. Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal was a little pricier last year at $7 per person (serving eight people), but it featured 29 items, including a turkey. The 2025 meal averages about $4 per person, and while it feeds two extra people, it features only 23 items, including a $0.97-per-pound turkey (last year, the company offered turkeys at $0.88 per pound).”

No matter what one’s beliefs are on Trump or his tariffs, we should seek out information to contextualize deals like Walmart’s, and understand the concerns of American shoppers facing higher prices. “Now that it seems like businesses will start pushing the costs to the consumer, we’re all going to be aware of the effects of the tariffs,” Mr. Filippone explains.

And whether households are struggling extra because of tariffs or other economic factors, we should always pay attention to how the economy is impacting people around America. Mr. Filippone encourages us to “think globally, act locally”, helping out at food banks and other local organizations. By staying aware and responding to our community’s needs, we can give joy and hope during the holiday season, and all year round.