Note for readers: This article discusses oppression and violence as major themes, mainly historical explanations and statistics. There will not be any graphic descriptions.
Last month, Syria’s Assad regime fell — after 53 years. Over 12 days, a rebel offensive took control of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and the capital city of Damascus. On December 8th, the rebels announced that they had liberated Syria from Assad.
Former leader Bashar al-Assad reportedly fled to Russia, where he was granted asylum in Moscow.
What happened under the Assad regime?
The regime, as told by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Library, was “a republican dictatorship deriving its power, in part, from the military. Organizations that monitor political, economic, and press freedoms… consistently rated [it] extremely poorly”.
Hafez al-Assad seized control of Syria in 1970; his rule saw brutal responses to rebellion. After he died in 2000, his son, Bashar, took over. Reform seemed possible; however, Bashar quickly returned to authoritarian practices. Both leaders caused mass incarceration, judicial killings, and violence.
In 2011, the Arab Spring prompted Syrians to rebel; Assad’s response was brutal. His use of military force plunged Syria into 13 years of civil war. It was one of the 21st century’s worst humanitarian crises, displacing around 12 million.
Now, Syrians see the regime’s fall as a sign of justice, with displaced people returning home. Some watch the rise of the new government with apprehension, but the reaction has mainly been joyful.
Who are the rebels?
The insurgent group, now a transitional government, is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Mohammad al-Jolani (also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa). HTS and the remainder of the ousted government agreed to make Mohammed al-Bashir Syria’s interim leader until March 1. It’s unclear how they plan to govern, and who will take over after al-Bashir.
Middle East Eye reports that HTS has experience governing in Idlib. Known as Jabhat al-Nusra, they aimed to create a Sunni Islamic state. Formerly connected to ISIS and Al-Qaeda, they broke these links in the 2010s. The US and UK still designate it as a terrorist organization, though al-Sharaa claims that the exhausted country should not be a threat.
The organization follows Salafi principles, which are conservative concerning religion and gender. However, they’ve rejected rigid rules, like those of ISIS and Saudi Arabia.
HTS has been accused of persecuting minorities. Recently, they’ve reached out to Christian and Druze Syrians, but concerns about minority rights remain.
Besides this, if Syria is to have peace, HTS will have to share power and compromise with local administrations.
What lies ahead?
Steptoe reports that sanctions on Syria due to Assad should be lifted, ending economic isolation. Tensions with Iran must be avoided to preserve the oil market.
HTS vows to establish a free market economy, opening up new opportunities for foreign investment.
Tension may flare with Syria’s neighbors, as well as Assad’s allies.
Mr. Collins, an AP World History teacher, discusses Russia and Iran: “Under [Assad], Russia was allowed to use a port on the Mediterranean… otherwise, to be able to access the Mediterranean they’d have to go through Turkey… One question is if [the new government will] allow Russia to continue using that port.”
Assad also “helped funnel weapons and money from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon, so it’ll be interesting to see, because HTS, based off my understanding of their religious and political leanings… won’t be allied with Iran at all.”
Mr. Collins adds on that conflict could arise with Turkey, involving the US. The stateless Kurdish population is settled in eastern Syria and Turkey.
“Turkey won’t want the Kurds to establish any type of state. […] The question ends up becoming… does either HTS or Turkey, or both, try to attack the Kurds?… If they do, does the United States continue to support the Kurds — or now that ISIS is effectively defeated, does US support of the Kurds disappear?”
Newly inaugurated President Trump has expressed disinterest in engaging with foreign conflicts.
“Syria’s an interesting look because it’s involved in so [much] of the geopolitical stuff going on today,” Mr. Collins continues.
He mentions Russia’s compromised ability to support Assad during their offensive in Ukraine; Israel’s attacks on Palestine and other countries’ proxy groups; and the Middle East’s cultural and religious diversity.
“[Syria is] an interesting snapshot of [what’s] going on in the Middle East and the world today, and how it’s all kind of coming together. Syria’s being impacted by all of this.”
Syrians are looking to a future filled with hope. Many are committed to holding HTS accountable. Several variables will affect the country’s future, but it’s worth continuing to follow as it transforms.
